Today's Probability:
37.8%
Trend:
Another New High!
Updated:
20160614 05:58 BST
Comment:
Another strong move up! Another new high.
Just a reminder, this probability is calculated from the big three British bookmakers (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill) and then adjusted for the overround. So the probability of a Remain vote at today's prices is 100% - 37.8% = 62.2%.
The reason for using bookmakers odds is that they tend to be a better indicator (though not a guarantee) of the real chances of an event as opposed to opinion polls.
As The Economist puts it...
Just a reminder, this probability is calculated from the big three British bookmakers (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill) and then adjusted for the overround. So the probability of a Remain vote at today's prices is 100% - 37.8% = 62.2%.
The reason for using bookmakers odds is that they tend to be a better indicator (though not a guarantee) of the real chances of an event as opposed to opinion polls.
As The Economist puts it...
Punters’ greater accuracy is to be expected: betting odds are meant to reflect the risk of an eventual outcome, whereas polls measure public opinion at a specific time.Again, it's no guarantee and is not necessarily accurate. It is just a better indicator of the likely outcome than the polls. And among all the noise and vitriol acts as a calm little reminder of where we are.
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